China's pledge to buy large volumes of US soybeans, made under last year's trade truce, is being put to the test as private crushers in the country hold back from purchases. The lack of participation from private traders complicates the official commitment and raises questions about whether China can meet its promised volumes.
Brazil, meanwhile, continues to dominate China's soybean market with a 73.6% share, protected by a tariff edge. US soybeans come with costly premiums compared with Brazilian supplies, which makes them less attractive to Chinese buyers unless the government steps in.
The coming August booking window will be a key test. If Chinese buyers do not commit to US cargoes by then, Brazil's dominance is likely to hold, and China's pledge under the trade truce will remain unfulfilled.