India's monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal in August and September, the India Meteorological Department said, with August rains predicted at 94% of the long-period average. The forecast is influenced by El Niño, which the World Meteorological Organization says continues to intensify and is expected to dominate global climate patterns in the August-October 2026 season. July rainfall turned out to be normal, thanks to plentiful showers in central India, which significantly reduced the overall monsoon deficit by the end of July. Western India is likely to be the worst affected during the second half of the southwest monsoon, and temperatures are likely to be high.