New estimates project that Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be lower than previously forecast, though benefits could still rise by as much as 3.6% next year. The annual adjustment, which is meant to help recipients keep up with inflation, is calculated based on changes in consumer prices. The exact rate will not be known until the government releases the final figures later this year. According to the latest estimates, the increase for 2027 is expected to be more modest than earlier predictions suggested. MarketWatch reports that the adjustment could be as high as 3.6%, giving recipients a sense of the potential boost to their monthly checks. The lower forecast follows shifts in inflation data, which have cooled compared with recent highs. While a smaller COLA means less additional money for retirees and other beneficiaries, even a 3.6% increase would provide a meaningful bump to monthly payments. Social Security officials will formally announce the 2027 COLA in the fall, based on third-quarter inflation figures. Until then, recipients will have to wait for the final number, which may fall anywhere between the previous forecast and the 3.6% upper estimate.